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Population Aging and Financing of Government Liabilities in New Zealand

Author : Polackova, H.

Publisher: Country Operations Division

Year: 1997

Page Numbers: 58

Acc. No: 23-S

Class No: 304.6

Category: Soft Documents

Subjects: Ageing

Type of Resource: Pdf

Languages: English

ISBN: No

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This paper explores the long-term fiscal effects of an aging population in New Zealand and considers several options available to government for containing and financing its future liabilities. Using the New Zealand Treasury long-term fiscal model, the paper analyzes the baseline fiscal outlook and its sensitivity to several economic, demographic, and policy assumptions. The results are presented from two different perspectives: In a balanced budget-tax rate (or zero net debt) approach, which shows the dynamics in the annual tax revenues that would be needed to balance future budgets; and in a constant tax rate (or tax smoothing) approach, which shows the dynamics in the government financial position when tax rates are held constant. Based on the survey of international literature and the sensitivity tests, the paper derives several policy options for alleviating both the demographic pressures on the future fiscal balances and the problem of government financing in the long term. Attention is given to a calculation of the government gross implicit pension debt, to the tradeoff between a pre-funding of future spending and future tax increases, and to the fiscal and behavioral implications relating to the level of New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) benefits.